Inside Out Analytics

A Production Based Economy

It seems that the theory of the economy for the past 40 years has been based on production, ie. do what ever you need to produce more, whether it be funny money, government created deficits, or supply side mumbo-jumbo stories.

In this environment, GDP has been the GOD.

The Macro Position, however, kept pointing to a time sometime down the road, where the consumer by being continually constricted, would hit a wall.  We may be at that point now.  Retail sales numbers put out yesterday could be that expected warning sign.  And GDP estimates for the 4th quarter 2018 are now down to 1.5 % and who knows for the First Quarter of 2019.

Not a Short Term Development

Keys going forward may start to focus around inventories and auto sales.