Why we don’t Believe the Growth Story

We keep being asked why we don’t believe the Growth Story.  It seems very simple, most of the growth stimulus is piled on the Production side, rather than the Consumption side.

It is true, the producers had to hire people, but as inventories build and trade deteriorates, there is only one thing they can do, back off. Today’s lighter employment number may be the start of that direction.

And earnings and certainly earning multiples will be hit along with employment.

And don’t forget our recent comments on Peak Employment and Peak Earnings which implies we have seen Peak Long Term Interest Rates for this cycle.



Posted at 8:15 AM CDT

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