Yesterday was just a Piece in the Macro Puzzle
Market Players are Blinking
While good durable goods numbers came out this morning, the real factors to watch are trade and discretionary spending going forward. The durable goods numbers are still a holdover of the tax cut buildout. We are still in the staging area for how all this plays out, and no doubt the trade war will not get legs until economies start to feel the pressure and the go to word will be front running, a mad dash to sell whatever one has, regardless of the price, stuff like oil, commercial real estate, etc.
What does an Investor do Now ?
My view, buy and hold is a dead idea. Sell rallys is more in keeping with this stage of the game. Players still want to be buyers, yesterday there was a lot of talk on CNBC’s Fast Money about buying against the 200 day average in the S&P, currently around 2584.
Where is Macro Support ?
The 2016 pre-election highs on August 23, 2016 at 2193 on the S&P stand out for us.