Clash at Top
A US President who gives away our leadership of the world is a wakeup call to anyone watching. The US will pay a dear price as well as will its assets. This is a fight between an economy that helps everyone vs a funny money economy that sends the spoils to the stock indexes. Just watch the intense battle that will evolve today between gold, and T-Bonds vs the stock indexes. Keep in mind that rumors in the trading arena are alluding to the use by the Treasury of the Crash Protection Team set up by Reagan in 1987. It can secretly use government funds to hold up the market at critical points, like currently where the big players are trying to hold on until the Trump Tax plan can move the money to them. And who is head of the Treasury these days?
Since January 11 you have been monitoring two portfolios here, one that tracks a Trump Growth setup and one portfolio that is keyed to anticipated weak consumer demand in the last half of the year, i.e. the Trump Slump. This slump will be a function of the fact that final consumer is being left out of the equation in the Trump agenda and most of the money is headed to the top. The strong GDP numbers being seen currently in the 2nd Quarter are primarily a production /inventory buildup that is based on Trump promises. For details on the portfolios and thinking look at the previous post from a few days ago.
The performance of these two portfolios has been zig-zagging for the 150 day period. Now the Trump Slump portfolio, EXTH, leveraged at 2.5, is poised to take the reins. It is up slightly coming in to today, the short oil part of the portfolio has the biggest gains, over 25 %, the short stock portion has around a 20 % loss. Long T-Bonds and gold have modest gains, around 4 percent. All in all, up slightly in total, but ahead of the ECT Trump Growth portfolio.
EXTH Fund Portfolio
ECT Fund Portfolio
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