The Yin-Yang of the First Quarter
So here we are on the last day of the First Quarter. The market guru’s during this period, the first quarter of the Trump Bump, has been interesting in what they have talked about and not talked about.
First, what they have talked about..the lazy play on technology stocks as investors wait for the big news from Washington, if nothing else will go up, then pile into this sector.
- Underlying this is Low volatility and no indication that it will increase.
- and the result, the New Technology based stocks, AAPL up around 24 % for the quarter, and Amazon up around 16 %.
Second, what they have not talked about..the much anticipated reflation/deregulation/infrastructure trade that has not held.
- At the end of the quarter, is unchanged, JPM is up 3 %, GS is down 4 %, XOM is down 9 %.
Third, the thing no one wants to talk about, the Long Gold/Long the 20 yr Bond trade has worked well and from the charts, looks like it is ready to kick off another big run up soon.
Other things to ponder, stuff that doesn’t make sense..
- Retail outside of online Amazon has been weak.
- Business and Consumer Confidence numbers are near records, and Wall Street expects strong first quarter earnings, yet First Quarter GDP is forecast to only be up 1 % and consumer spending is weak