The FED Balance Sheet / Market Timing Marks

It has been just over a year, October 2014, that QE3 ended and the FED’s balance sheet expansion stopped.  While there is a lot of talk about a little rise in interest rates, I believe that key guide posts stand our in looking at the economy and the stock markets future.

  1. First the FED Balance Sheet at this date is essentially unchanged from a year ago.  There was a little decline between November 2014 and June 2015, but it would appear that a little fear at the FED brought it back up into October 15 2015.
  2. That means the first guide post is what those balance sheet numbers do as we move forward. They will decline if the FED is doing more than blowing smoke.
  3. Market timing marks are the second factor to watch. Using the S&P Index the final topping indicators kicked off on 11/24/14 at a index level of 2071.  That is a key level to measure against.
  4. The market topped on 5/20/15 at an index level of 2135.
  5. Our Macro Cycle indicators turned down on 7/23/15 when the market closed at 2102.
  6. The final indicator of the rollover topped on 11/3/15.

 

 

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