I am not looking for a Commodity Bottom

It has been some time since we posted.  In the macro sense there has not been anything to talk about. We saw 15 days that the S&P traded above the 2070 level, since October 23, and then it went below that level, and now it is approaching that level again.

I think from the Macro sense one just has to get used to a market in disbelief.  The market has been under the control of the FED for so long that what is happening will take a long time to sink into the trading mentality.  Remember the dollar and deflation are the key factors in control.

Some things I see here are:

  1. Over the past year we have seen the Macro indicator on all eleven stock sector ETF’s turn down in a slow sequence.  The XLE energy ETF turned down over a year ago, and this October the last one turned lower, ie. the Health ETF XLV.
  2. Commodities are the leading edge and are getting close to starting a new leg down.
  3. In my view terrorism is an outgrowth of the dark side of globalization and the internet-social media phenomenon that aggravate the religious wars of the ages .  Everyone around the world now sees the global inequality that has existed and is increasing.  I don’t see much movement to solve the problem other than flying around and dropping bombs.

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