A Look at Market Behavior Patterns

Today we will refer back to the front page of our website and the topic shown there that was posted at the end of the First Quarter 2015:


The two charts listed there refer to our Risk On/Risk Off measurements, one Global and one U.S.

Here are the important updates to the numbers on the two charts.  The start of QE3 was September 2012.

Global Chart                                   U.S. Chart

Start of QE 3        104.77                                            128.72

March 31, 2015    109.42                                           127.26

June 30, 2015       106.77                                            126.48

For us, while the index was able to take out the 2007 high after QE3 was implemented, the important point is that the U.S. chart has had difficulty, since 2012, holding above the QE3 start point levels.  The high was 134.77 in June 2014.  Currently it is down six percent from those highs and is below the QE3 start point.

On the other hand the Global Chart has not been able to take out the 2007 highs but did see a move higher to a peak in August 2014 at 116.27 as Japan and Europe QE plans were implemented and /or anticipated. At the end of June it is down around eight percent from that high but is still above the QE3 start level.

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