It is not about being Bearish
The fact that we believe that we are in day 41 of an elongated top in the stock market does not mean that we want to be Bearish here or think the market is in a bubble or any of the other reasons mentioned in the media as reasons for the market to go down.
The fact is that QE infinity created a new world artificial economic order and no one knows what is going to happen next, but in any case it is highly unlikely the market will find reasons to go higher from here.
We are watching the T-Bond ETF, TLT, for confirmation or un-confirmation of the above premise. At the moment TLT is trading at 112.15,- kind of in the middle of a 109.34 to 114.62 no-man’s land. A close above 114.62 would indicate to us that the economy is weakening, while a close below 109.34 would indicate that the economy is showing strength.