Try thinking of the FED as a gun shop that farms out the manufacturing of its most crucial component, the trigger. At the moment a majority of market players believe that the FED is working on the trigger inhouse, i.e. tapering, but actually all the FED is doing is handing out ammo as they work on the length of the barrel.
The truth is that the tapering details are too complex to implement and lead primarily to talk about tapering. The complexity has been created because the whole FED program after the initial save of QE1….the QE2, QE3, and QE-infinity, were primarily reactions to a congress that cannot get its act together, what has been come to be known as Gridlock.
So we all are being led to believe that the employment numbers are the key to the trigger, albeit employment numbers that are becoming highly influenced by part-time employees and wages that are stagnant. Look around you, the two things that look good in the economy are car and truck sales where buyers can borrow the money, and high end mall shopping where the rich people hang out.
The rest of the economy is sick at best. So if you are looking for triggers look outside where accident prone triggers are being built. We will talk about those triggers over the next couple of months as this stock market top is being built.