S&P 500, Gold, and Oil ……………..UPDATE Change AT 1:15 PM CDT
Yesterday I mentioned that the highs are in for the year. I don’t think we are headed for a major Bear Market now, that will come after the election if the populace votes for it. In the meantime, we are definitely not looking for a Bull Market, regardless of what CNBC’s Jim Cramer is touting. So a sideways to down market is more where we see things.
At the moment here are our six month forecast numbers ( up to the election ) on the big three markets, stocks, gold, and oil.
S&P 500 High 1422, Practical High 1354, Swing Point 1286, Low 1150;
Gold High 1795, Practical High 1657, Swing Point 1519, Low 1243;
Crude Oil High 112, Practical High 104, Swing Point 97, Low 82.
Since the Highs are behind us a Practical High was calculated for the period going forward.
It is significant that volatility indicators show there was little worry in the market numbers coming into this week. That will probably change. Also technical market indicators in stocks have held up prior to today. Prior to this point one had to have other reasons to be a seller, that will probably change this week also.
What is happening is primarily a function of how people, politics, government, and corporations have reacted to the excesses before 2008. The solutions and implied solutions are the mix that the markets will have to evaluate both here and in Europe. Since there is no coming together and focus on real solutions, the markets and the people will bear the pressure.
Update: We have covered two thirds of our short stock and gold positions in the past hour. S&P is at 1358. We are not bullish, just surprised that the market did not drop hard. Covering shorts like this always carry risks of missing a significant move but we have had a good move down. Additionally I am raising the practical rebound highs on S&P to 1388 and gold to 1725.