My Forecast, Gingrich will be the Next President
It will not be because he is my choice or the best one in the race, either for Republicans or the big one. It is because he is the most verbal, the most outrageous, and smart. He will be a wild card, saying whatever looks smart and right at the moment. A logical coherent platform will not be his bag. And guess what, it will play to the middle class because they, both Republicans and Democrats are mad.
Obama’s biggest problem is that he is cool and calculating and surrounds himself with east coast intellectuals. Going to Harvard does not get one ready for the middle class fight in Akron. His recent speech in Kansas was very well thought out and had all the important points. But he was not outrageous, he was logical. Logic will not play in 2012. His only chance to pull off a win in 2012 is to make some major changes in thinking and personnel. He has to get rid of logical and calculating Geithner and smooth talking Biden. He has to be bold and shake up the country, give the people a choice. I would recommend fighting outrageous with verbal and outrageous, maybe Kucinich for VP , and Reich for Treasury Secretary. Forget the middle road and compromise. Problem is, this all should have been done a year or two ago.
Why am I talking about the next election and the market? It is because Politics are the market these days, both in the US and Europe. The direction that the world is moving is towards austerity and eventually depression. Gingrich will help move the US in that direction. I bought into the “Obama change direction” but the change has been luke warm as Obama tried to work with the Republicans rather than confront them. The economic problems have been too big for that strategy to work. So while we may have a luke warm Christmas rally, the hope that the price distribution pattern in the markets of the past year, which we have consistently pressed, would morph into higher prices in 2012 seems to be over.
The breakdown in the gold market yesterday and eventually the stock, farmland, real-estate markets reflects the worlds push towards a reset of the 1931 to 2000 macro up move. We will talk more about this as the election year kicks off in Iowa.
For now we are short gold and watching the stock market for bigger signals as we sit a little long.