How Big a Bounce
The current Long 17.6 year cycle started in March 2000. Before commodities peaked in this cycle in 2008 we saw Oil go up five times. Stocks gyrated around and peaked in 2007. The markets that I consider kind of the dashboard indicators, i.e. the dollar and T-Bonds and Gold went opposite directions with the dollar going down, T-Bond prices going higher (yields lower), and Gold tripling.
All this hit a tipping point in late 2007 through mid 2008 when commodities and stock market prices peaked while T-Bond yields and the dollar bottomed. We then have had bounces in the commodities and Stock arena, Oil rallying 32 percent and stocks 58 percent, well within the ranges 24 to 62 percent for Fibonacci technical bounce levels.
What do the dashboard indicators say now? To me they say that 1) the world is ending, get me in Gold phase has abated, 2) T-Bond yields are pointed higher but not a lot yet, 3) the dollar will increase in value during this coming phase, and 4) stocks and commodities will ease back to support levels.
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