It’s Not That Things are Better

It’s that they are not turning worse and the initiatives, both public and private, that affect the real economy, not the banks, are for the most part, yet to be implemented. 

A major battle in the market has been ensuing since the S&P closed at 834 on April 2nd.  The bears have been adamant since the 798 close on March 18th that the rally to that point was just a blip and new lows were coming.  The market then broke through into a new area above S&P 800.  Adding pressure to the market now are the seasonal/cyclical  short sellers who have piled on this week. 

So a major event is shaping up here.  One group, the bulls or the bears is going to run for cover.  S&P 822 and 862 are the tipping points for a significant move, although what is a 80 point S&P move these days.  T-bonds and Gold are suggesting that money is ready to move into stocks but the old bad news that the bears hang on to is everywhere.

It is tempting for us to close out our positions here and go on vacation until the October lows.  Our Conservative Portfolio is up 10 percent and our Aggressive Portfolio is up 20 percent for the year to date.  The problem is however, if the market breaks out on the upside here, the October low will be S&P 830.

The EMA ETF Fund NAV was 1067 at the close yesterday.

8:04 AM CDT