Its Been a Year

One year ago today we started this website.  The reason was simple, I saw a set of bubbles that either had already started bursting or were about to burst.  I wanted to provide input to family, friends, former hedge fund clients, and whoever logged on the site.  It has been a good experience.  We still have not completely decided where we go from here.  Other than the t-bond bubble, the bubble bursting is over and we have a new President who has taken over a tough situation. 

Over this 12 month period we have seen our Tracking Portfolio rise 25 percent while the S&P 500 is down 36 percent.  Our investing style may be best called Theme Investing, a mix of macro economics and politics with a desire to be early into the various themes.  In 2002 when we started the tracking portfolio our theme was simple, we felt that trying to boost the economy through the Iraq War made gold and gold stocks the way to go, we rode that theme until gold hit the $ 750 area in 2007.  Overlapping the first theme was the stock market and real estate bubbles, so we started adding short stocks to the portfolio in late 2005, early but right. In July 2007 the signal was evident that a real bear market was about to erupt and our short stock positions were increased markedly.  The stock market held through early October 2007 and then started breaking.  It was at that time that a decision was made to look into starting a website.  Our theme changed in October 2008, 80 percent of the stock market bubble had been cleaned out and it was time to look at stepping through the litter and look forward.  That is where we are now, not nearly as exciting a period as a year ago, but in many ways much more difficult.  Instead of one force there are a lot of crosscurrents, but as they always say, they don’t ring a bell and tell you when to change course. 

No change in our positions.  Yesterdays action saw the financials rally against gold, right to a resistance level in that relationship.  If the financials can pierce that resistance in the coming days, weeks, etc, that will be a big signal that the upward course of the market has technical and fundamental legs.

The NAV at yesterday’s close on the EMA ETF Fund was 978.

8:24 AM CST 

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