Who Are You ?………..with 10:30 AM position update
If you are involved in the markets, specifically this Bear Market, you need to know who you are, ie. what kind of investor/trader. This website provides two tracks to follow, a Conservative Portfolio and an Aggressive Portfolio.
The Conservative Portfolio was added on 5/19/08 when the S&P was at 1440 because it was obvious to us that a major Bear Market was starting that had a long way to go to an eventual 440 downside objective and we needed to provide some guidance that didn’t have major long-side risk. The Aggressive Portfoliois a window into my own trading, an approach that I like for both its intellectual rigor and its increased return potential. It obviously entails more risk and at the moment has only marginally better returns since 5/19/08, though it did make a slightly new all time high on the close November 5th.. All of our recommendations are tracked in the Marketocracy Portfolio.
It is important to realize that nothing we provide on this website pertains to day-trading. The levels we mention as support and resistance are provided to provide a window into our thinking, but unless we make a recommendation to buy or sell, it is solely information. I bring this up because I got an email yesterday that complained that the S&P 940 level was breached to the downside. To me that was information that investors had more fear than I felt at that point, in fact if it were to be known these late sellers were probably followers of Dick Morris or Rush Limbaugh, the only groups that were genuinely surprised by the Obama win and who fear him greatly.
At the moment in the Conservative Portfolio we are 25 percent long stocks and 75 percent in cash. The Aggressive Portfolio is 67 percent long stocks, 25 percent cash, 4 percent short T-Bonds, and 3 percent long dollar. We are inclined to increase our long stock and short bond position today or Monday and will notify you of such when we trigger the additions.
Alos later today or over the weekend we will provide some thoughts on solutions for the Obama people to review.
7:52 AM CST
Position Update at 10:30 AM
Moved long stock index positions up to 85 percent with S&P at 913.50.