The FED funds rate is out of Sync…

The Fed Funds rate, which I call the Message rate, ie. the FED message of rate direction via the differential between it and the average market interest rate (2Y+5Y+10Y+30Y)/4. Here is a chart of that differential since 1989. It is obvious that at a minimum to get FF rate inline we need 4 cuts (yellow line) or to get to a normalization rate, 6 cuts (green line).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

eighteen − fifteen =