End of year S&P target…

Today’s action has elements that suggest that we will see a strong 2024 with the small caps having the most potential, Russell is up around 5 percent today. I don’t think it is because the Russell has been relentlessly sold down over the past year, but more likely the start of a broad move higher on core stocks.

Nothing goes straight up, every day is tricky, as our Climate Tech model results attest to, but some big things are happening. While end of year targets are only a one day point, it is interesting on what I like to use, a macro chart based flip point gives a 5100 target on the S&P.

Here is what I put out on Twitter. It is not about the FED lowering rates, too much growth for much of that.

But, rejoice, we are back to Normal interest rates. Take a look at this chart of the average (30Y+10Y+5Y+2Y) going back to 1989 with some important analysis dates highlighted. We see normal rate periods being, Sept 1993, Jan 1999, June 2007. Since June 2007 we have seen the trifecta, 2008 Great Recession, 2011 Bernanke Panic and resulting QE, and the 2020 Covid response.

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