The New Economy, the Climate Tech model, keeps chugging along. GDPNOW for the second quarter estimates 2.7 % GDP, employment and wages remain strong, main obstacle remaining is McCarthy.
Probably the biggest thing that will happen over the next few months will be the FED being forced to admit that the huge differential of FED Funds rate versus average market rates has been the cause of the banking crisis. See chart based on weekly data here. On Nov 7, 2022 the FED pushed the 3 month rate above market rates. That was a good way to get the message out that “0%” rates were history. What has occurred since March 13, 2023 is irresponsible in my mind and is the background factor to watch.