Let’s Keep Focused..
While we go through the economic hiccup phase, a little softness in factory orders and other production and employment figures I think it is a good idea to focus on the environment that we see ourselves. And for that I just watch the 30-05 year yield curve. Alan Greenspan always said, when you see the 30 year gaining on the 5 year, things are headed in the right direction. The talking heads like to talk about the 2 year rate, and it is important in the short term, as it is important to short term economic activity. But, one always has to keep in mind that the 2 yr rate is close to the 3 month rate and is generally a reflection of FED activity, not economic activity.
And while we are talking about rates, let’s revisit our average market rate curve and the projection out of the 3/24/23 recent low. (updated today)
You can see that market rates are gyrating around the curve that we expect to see peak in early June.