FED messaging needs a critical look, Powell could get his credibility back if he admitted that 13 years of low rates was a mistake and that they were taking rates back to a normal level. This talk of punishing markets or the economy is wrong, punishing the FED would be more appropriate.
And a step back to look at the Research…
I try to base my comments on relationships and levels that various of our charts suggest.
One chart that I keep going back to is the ROC (rate of change) charts that monitor various interest rates and yield curves. My favorite, probably mainly because it provides a longer analysis span is the 30-10 Yield Curve ROC chart. The chart shows key reaction points (which are lableled) to rate and yield curve changes. They are:
- 3/12/20 bottom
- 5/11/22 bottom
- 8/1/22 confirmation of bottom,
- 8/18/22 retest of bottom