Crash Warnings

My inbox this past weekend seemed to be overflowing with Crash Warnings, all the big names chiming in. I share those concerns, but don’t think it will happen while artificial forces are in control. It will come later, in coming years, after natural supply / demand forces play out

Today is a day when I am using this back-off to fill in any holes in the portfolio.

Watching the Insiders….

I don’t think one can totally determine who the Insiders are, these are the traders who are close to the FED and Treasury in terms of cross employment, ie going back and forth between government and financial institutions in terms of employment.

But I do watch two things, how the overnight insider trade leans, ie during up markets they push higher, and in down markets, they push lower; and secondly, I watch trade during the last half hour of the daily session, if the insiders are long, the last 30 minutes the market tends to push higher, and if the insiders are short the last 30 minutes the market tends to push lower.

And, looking at earnings..

The next wave of fear in stock trading is earnings. In my view, over the past forty years, fortified by supply side leanings, CEO’s have been taught and have learned to put the bottom line on top, over handling of employees and ethics policy. Strong earnings and inequality have been the result. On the positive side this theme seems to be rolling over, but we are still seeing the long tail of the corporate economy in numbers over the next six months.