Trading Range Ending

This week should be the end of our current trading range mentality in SPX and NDX that has dominated since January 25th. That has been around 4360 to 4600 on SPX and 14,100 to 15,200 on NDX.

I continue to believe that the FED is not doing nearly enough to stop the embedded inflation, it would take more like 5.5% FED Funds rate and 250 Billion of monthly Balance sheet reduction to get the job done, roughly double the current policy. So, until the get serious, we probably can look for some stock market upside. I will be watching SPX 4280 and NDX 14,000 levels as target getting long areas, will update as this unfolds. It would appear that the bond vigilantes have about completed their initial onslaught as the yield curve is showing a bit of a turn to steeper direction.