Why would anyone who has been lucky enough to ride the gravy train since last March not take profits and get out? Market internals are breaking down, factors like leadership, breadth, participation, sectors. None of this took any analysis, one just had to believe in the FED to keep the bubble going. If we could peek into Powell’s gut I think we would find that he is more scared of what will happen next than any market participant.
“I think the market player’s attitude is, ‘I’ve got to play the game. The fundamentals don’t work, none of it makes sense, but I think there will be some clue as to when to get out.’
This morning we are seeing some market pressure, kind of based around COVID and the fact that the reopening trade is tepid at best due to COVID politics and the fact that too much money was handed out by Washington Right that did not involve people working. I keep saying retraining and real work are the way to go.
Keeping all that in mind at the moment I think the surprise that is most feared is that the bigger infrastructure bill will eventually pass and will be funded by increased corporate and high end taxes.
The Republicans are burning so many bridges with their over the top rhetoric these days that even Joe Manchin is getting ready to bolt. If he keeps acting like a 75 % Republican, what will keep him from losing the Democratic portion of his vote and push the West Virginia populous to vote for a pure Republican.
And to top if off, the big infrastructure bill, if it passes, has the potential to set off the inflation based interest rate spike that was talked about back in February.