Is the COVID 19 Crisis Over ?


It would be nice but probably not. In a market world that is designed to be a filter not confirmation of any news, this is just the second event of many to come in terms of , medications, cures and vaccines. The movie “Contagion”, well done, which came out a number of years ago, had a subplot that dealt with all the people and companies that manipulated the market with “cure” news.

What Does it Mean?

  1. First keep in mind that stock prices were way overpriced back in February and were waiting for a sell trigger.
  2. So a vaccine that really worked and was available would only bring the market back to maybe an 80 % level, now at 60 % level.
  3. It is evident that the overall market scenario is being addressed with a “offensive strategy” by the majority of participants, just by the size of the bounce.
  4. Let’s hope that a “defensive strategy” is wrong, probably not, but if it is anyone following a defensive strategy can never be short enough if they are right. This is the thing that tends to wake me more than a concern that I am overly hedged. It would be great to go out to a good restaurant again, no price would be too much.

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