Is the COVID 19 Crisis Over ?
It would be nice but probably not. In a market world that is designed to be a filter not confirmation of any news, this is just the second event of many to come in terms of , medications, cures and vaccines. The movie “Contagion”, well done, which came out a number of years ago, had a subplot that dealt with all the people and companies that manipulated the market with “cure” news.
What Does it Mean?
- First keep in mind that stock prices were way overpriced back in February and were waiting for a sell trigger.
- So a vaccine that really worked and was available would only bring the market back to maybe an 80 % level, now at 60 % level.
- It is evident that the overall market scenario is being addressed with a “offensive strategy” by the majority of participants, just by the size of the bounce.
- Let’s hope that a “defensive strategy” is wrong, probably not, but if it is anyone following a defensive strategy can never be short enough if they are right. This is the thing that tends to wake me more than a concern that I am overly hedged. It would be great to go out to a good restaurant again, no price would be too much.