The Markets are Clueless

Just listening to CNBC and Cramer’s rant, “we just want to make money”. That is probably the problem, there are not many investors these days, just funny money traders.

Oil Got Cheap Enough

So does that mean you should buy it? Maybe, but the real news is that we are in a rolling transformation. Oil was first to crater. Commercial real estate won’t be far behind, and then there are stocks which are not close to fair value.

Food commodities need to be watched closely as the competing tugs between deflation and possibilities of climate related production short falls. We will be watching spring planting and livestock marketing problems as COVID 19 decimates the meat packing industry.

Watch the April 9, 2020 FED / Treasury Panic Bubbles.

As a marker on the Panic Bubble the two markets that we key on are the High Yield Bonds (HYG ETF) and the S&P 500.

The FED and the Treasury are funneling money into the High Yield markets as a gateway to try and prop up the stock market because they legally cannot buy stocks, although there are no doubt traders close to the administration who do serve that purpose .

The HYG close on April 8 was 77.30 and the range since is 78.25 and 84.05. At the moment it is trading at 78.89. A close below 77.30 will be a warning as to how well the program is working and a days range totally below 77.30 will knock this market for a loop.

The S&P closed at 2750 on April 8. The range in the bubble since is 2721 to 2879. Yesterday’s close below 2750 is a warning and a days range totally below 2721 will open the floodgates lower.