How Do They Get Out, the Exuberant Longs

A Lot Of Heat

We have taken a lot of heat over the last two years as to how the Macro Cycle would end.  The January 2018 Fracture signal took a long time to play out.

Our readership has dropped sharply since the 2008 to 2011 period highs.

And that is understandable.

Adding Risk has been So Easy for the Market 

Part of it was the belief that there would be a signal that would allow everyone to get out before a crash.

Who would have thought a crash would trigger based on a virus?

So everyone is still sitting long, and we would expect some formidable dead cat bounces until there is a first stage cleanout.

What is the First Stage Cleanout level?

While this week is just the start of a Macro Decline, active traders will want to focus on some shorter term support levels for the market.

We originally thought the first objective would be 2798 on the S&P but looking at the momentum and other factors we now assess a 60 % probability of a move down to 2722 and a 40 % probability of a move down to 2266.