Dow Jones Crash, Conflicting Inputs Today

The stock market feels heavy today,

Yet it seems to be holding its own for the moment.  My view, the market has two hopes (both of which I believe will unravel) that it is trying to hold onto:

  1. it still believes that Trumps harassment of the Fed will push the Fed to lower rates more, and this will save the day, and, today in fact, declining market interest rates are saving stocks,
  2. it still believes that a Trump Trade miracle will happen soon in spite of talk of agreement being months away.

Our Big Raptor computer based sell signal on stocks still awaited..

We are still sitting in the August 26 to date rebound formation.

10 year interest rates in a rising trend

Despite a little backoff in rates over the past few days we still expect the 10 year rate to eventually push up to 2.3 percent from the September 19 recent low based on government deficit funding imbalances, not the FED.

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