Are Tariffs and Sanctions Changing the GDP Inputs?

This morning in taking a look at the movement since the January 26 Swing Point, three things stand out,

  1. one is that while we see a little blip back in the yield curve, the biggest thing that has occurred is its flattening.
  2. The second thing that we see is a rise in the Reuters Commodity Index, probably reflecting rising costs of metals and oil.
  3. The two year bond is making higher yields, while the 30 yr and 10 yr bond yields are lower.

The backdrop however is that GDP forecasts are weak and rising costs of short term inputs are a negative.

On top of this, while the biggest need of the country is infrastructure rebuilding, our money is being frittered away with unfunded tax cuts to the Top.

For us this as a potential drag on future corporate earnings.

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