Today’s Reports are a Mixed Bag…..with update
Inflation was a little higher, gasoline a factor, than expected, but retail sales are light. That in total is not a high growth formula, i.e. is bearish on stocks. On the other hand, the bulls at CNBC want to hang on to the old story and talk about why markets should head higher because of the coming high growth effects of the tax change bill. Their main worry is that market volatility will cause everyone, consumers, corporations, etc. , to sit on their hands. Yes.
Now that the reports are history, it probably would be better to focus on the technicals than the reports. Initial reaction of the markets was lower stocks, but volatility is back. The factors mentioned yesterday still prevail with trader positioning being the biggest factor, they are bullish with poor positions.
How T-bonds, Gold, Commodities(Oil), react are important factors. Over the coming period a low growth posture is what I will wait to see confirmation. I still believe the oil bounce rally from the 2016 lows has been completed, that Gold will move higher when the stock market comes unglued, and that T-Bonds are a place to hide for those who are not comfortable being short stocks.
Happy Valentines Day
Posted at 8:02 AM CST 2/14/18
Update at 9:00 AM CST 2/14/18
Keep in mind that until Gold has three closes above 1375 and the S&P takes out last weeks lows, there will be rally attempts in the S&P. So for now, the S&P 2716 level remains the attractor level for a Super Sell.