All In for 2018
All In for 2018..
As we begin 2018 we have the advantage that most economic and market factors are all in the boat, and all are stacked on one side.
The Hope and Accumulate Phase has been Completed..
Stocks and the build out investments are bought and ready.
The Fed is on Board..
The Fed buys the growth story in spite of generally tepid consumer buying power.
Here are the Five Questions for the Economy and the Markets that we pose at this Point..
- Will Trickle Down work this time?
- What will be the effect of a Federal Deficit that will be increasing at a faster rate than at any time since the 2009 bailout?
- Will consumer net incomes really start increasing?
- What will be the effect on the import/export/trade deficit numbers caused by the upheavals in tax and trade areas?
- What will be the effect of a further flattening of the yield curve?
Our Bottomline Expectations..
- Declining trade over the next 12 months, (imports and exports, Y on Y , down along with an increasing net deficit)
- Tepid consumer spending..
- Rising short term interest rates..
- Declining long term interest rates, after a little first of the year posturing by the GS of the world..
And One more Thing, Bitcoin..and Gold
- We are seeing the adoption of the ultimate speculative vehicle. It has no stable value, is not a currency, it is pure air and the purest technical trading vehicle that has ever existed, it makes, Tulips, Onions, Potatoes, and Gold seem very stable and old school. We are looking into commodity based pattern recognition computer programs that we have used for years to trade it. In a bigger sense it will probably be the trigger that undoes all the unstable economic ideas that started being adopted in the early 80’s.
- Gold will become the refuge for a part of the Risk Offset Portfolio.