Fear/Deflation/Stock Market Bubble

The three major Macro influences are starting to move off center.

Our Tracking Fund, EXTH, which is long bonds, long gold, short oil, and short stocks is moving close to an upside breakout point. Every time in the past 8 months it has backed off when it has reached this level.  We believe things might be different this time.

We see the start of Central Bank Balance Sheet reduction as the key trigger to ignite an already volatile current environment as it will force the markets to act, most likely move short term rates higher (regardless of the FED) and long-term interest rates lower.

 

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