The Hillary Rally
As we have been saying, the primary factor in the 2016 market is politics. The two big policy questions to be addressed are continuing or curtailing inequality, and whether to support or end Regime Change foreign actions.
In the past few days the media pundits have jumped over the wall and decided that it is a Trump – Clinton election and that defecting Republicans will push for Clinton. That would mean that Robert Rubin and Bill Clinton will make sure inequality remains intact and military hardware companies can feel better as the U.S. tries to remake the world.
So guess what, we are getting the rally to the S&P 500 resistance level mentioned a few weeks ago at 1993.
As to who will win the election, I would say that the answer is a long off. Two outside the box scenarios after the conventions, is first: a three some , Trump/Clinton/Sanders (as the independents combine with Democrat and Republican issue disaffected voters); And one real wild scenario a Kasich/ Sanders election as the Republican convention implodes and Sanders becomes more than a one issue candidate and takes on Clinton’s Iraq and Libya regime change history.