This is a Macro Analytics Challenge
Working with Macro trends in a sense defies a persons sense of what is happening in any one day. In terms of the stock market the Macros turned down between late June and July of this year. The market then went down in August and eventually on a retest of the first break, we saw Carl Icahn turn publicly a bear. Now we are seeing a rally, one that could even make new highs for a few days or weeks, or not. The point is that the top of the trend is in and the first quarter of 2016, possibly even late in the fourth quarter of 2015 we will see significant weakness.
I am watching the T-Bond market chart for more signals, in my opinion it is developing a formation that will print a 180 trade in the next six months as the 149-152 base is completed.
The real factor behind the current market is the belief that while the FED is now going to raise rates to save face, they are: 1) not going to admit that QE3 didn’t work, and 2) they will do what ever they have to do to keep the stock market moving higher ie. the world believes the FED is all powerful. Until something happens on the political front to move us back to Free Markets, this underlying belief will continue.