Data Dependent Day, a Week Away

I always like to look at the data the FED has to work with in their meetings, especially now that we have a FED that is data dependent rather than one that is made up of economists with big picture views.  If the markets stay around current areas through a week from now, they will be looking at:

  1. stock market values around the world above where they were the day before the last meeting..
  2. The T-Bond market substantially above where it was the before the last meeting..
  3. the dollar below where it was before the last meeting..
  4. crude oil above where it was before the last meeting..
  5. Gold price above where it was before the last meeting..

The indicators that would point to a rate rise would then be:

  1. Stocks prices..
  2. oil prices..
  3. the value of the dollar..
  4. gold prices..

The indicators that would point to a hold tight would then be:

  1. T-Bond prices..

Bottom line:

     Four to one, for a rate hike.

 

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