Market Volume tells a Story, and Secular vs Cyclical Markets

We continue to view volume/price action (Granville’s On Balance Volume Indicator) as important in this aging Cyclical Bull Move (within the Secular Bear Move).  This indicator shows the following in terms of OBV numbers:

S&P 500           OBV Topped on 12/29/14     @ Price of 2091        current price  =    2123

Dow Jones         OBV Topped on 2/25/15       @ Price of 18,224    current price  = 18,162

Nasdaq 100       OBV Topped on 4/24/15       @ Price of 4537       current price =     4538

Apple                  OBV Topped on 4/27/15        @ Price of 132.65    current price =   131.76


Moving on to a discussion of Secular vs. Cyclical markets:

Yesterday’s letter from Mauldin, one of our primary links,, deals with this issue.

see:    Mauldin Economics     May 27, 2015


This week’s Mauldin letter deals with where we are in the Secular and Cyclical market cycles.

  • Briefly, Mauldin believes as I do, that the Secular Bear Cycle started in 2000 and is still in effect.
  • He includes research of Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed’s work with John in the book “Bulls Eye Investing” in 2003 was instrumental in a lot of my thinking since.
  • John has added a Cyclical short term market type of analyst, Jawad Mian to his group in the past few years. Jawad’s cyclical views  (and hopes) are important to know at this point in the Secular Cycle, as they would portend to a Cyclical Bull Move within the Secular Bear Move.  I have a bit of reservation in agreeing with his forecasts as it would appear to me that it is based on more hope and old time thinking than I like to embrace.
  • In any case it is a good read, especially the link to Crestmont Research.

And the Three Horseman Index

Yesterday’s close saw the index firm up to 105.27, just under the all time high of 105.31.

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