First Quarter Earnings and GDP
will tell the story of the risk profile of the market in the coming weeks.
For me the market is treading into quicksand. Today we are entering day 21 of the 20 to 30 day topping formation that we have identified. Based on today’s early highs after the employment report versus the highs of the pivot day March 7 ; the Russell is down 1.6 percent, the Nasdaq is down 1.9 percent, the Dow is up 0.8 percent, and the S&P is up 0.7 percent.
The spread between consumers ability to buy and manufacturers willingness to produce continues to be the critical factor. My bottomline is that demand for goods is less than supply as we move into the second quarter.