2014, The Year of Uncertainties
As the new year opens a feeling of optimism seems to encompass the markets. Corporate CEO’s, Financial analysts, and the overall consumer would appear to be feeling very good and in general see 2014 as a positive year, although probably not as good for the Stock Market as 2013.
Everyone knows that the FED actions for the past few years have increased the inequality equation and there is no question that those on top are feeling pretty flush. That being said, they are nervous, they know they will have to get ahead of all their friends when they approach the exit door, trampling will be a problem.
The big question is who or what will ignite the fire and turn on the exit signs. Let’s look at the probable igniters, starting at the top with the number one possibility:
1) China (demands for domestic structural investments could push them to slow their economy and sell off their U.S. T-Bond inventory)
2) Emerging markets could be forced to react to a lessening in world wide economic activity and investment.
3) Japan’s attempt to follow the Bernanke Fed blows up as taxes increase.
4) The FED does something stupid.
And then there is always the possibility that the FED will keep all the balls in the air for another year.