Sideways, An Alternative
With the coming election and expectations that the Fed will step in aggressively if things get really bad, an alternative scenario is that the markets through the election are going to be a sideways affair. That would mean on the S&P a 1288 to 1388 range with the swingpoint at 1338. For gold that would mean a trading range between 1507 and 1667 with the swingpoint at 1587. At the moment the markets are pushing through the swingpoints and seem to be headed for the lower bounds of the trading range. One must be aware, however, that decisive moves through the lower trading range bound levels will uncork major selling.
Yesterday the ag etf DBA got to the 29.59 level, not to far from our high projection level of 30.70.
The dollar is flirting with a major upside breakout. A weekly close tomorrow above 23.01 on the dollar etf UUP or the dollar index above 84.11 will be a good confirmation of that breakout.
I will be travelling out of the country for the next couple of weeks and probably will not post unless something major occurs.