Obama has a Problem

And it is the economy.  He needs a strong person heading up his economic message.  It is not Geithner.  If Volker was not so old he would be the man, a take no prisoners type of leader.  Obama’s problem is that you can never do something half way, either you get big stimulus done or you do none and let the the economy clean out on the downside.  He is in a no-mans land now.

The markets have seen the highs for the year and are generally going to erode, no bear market, just lethargy.  Look for stocks to head to August lows, some 10 to 12 percent down from here..  In my opinion the Fed cannot do QE3 because Romney is probably going to win the election and he will not reappoint Bernanke if he does another QE.  As such look for 1250 gold by late summer.

In the meantime, the S&P could bounce now to the 1387 area.  This leaves a range for the rest of the year at 1123 to 1387, with the swingpoint now at 1255.