Contrarians

If there is such a word, but anyway being a contrary investor takes a mindset that doesn’t require others to agree with you.  Most of the time few will agree with your market positions. 

Yesterday was a good example of what happens when you have a contrary position.  With the Fed’s help over the past 30 years most of the time the asset markets go up and then have violent downward readjustments.  Bulls, of which most average investors are, feel justified when a market goes up.  Bears also know that markets go up most of the time, however when they are short and the market goes up, they have to ask themselves what they did wrong. The contrast is however when the market goes down, Bulls always blame something, the market, the President, etc.  Bears just feel smart when the market goes down.   

Taking a Macro view makes it easier to have a contrarian mentality because it makes it easier to saddle up with the bulls and ride the micro euphoria although the last period before the big decline was a bit dicey, 2005 to 2007 is the last period to come to mind.  I will include here a review that we have expressed at various times on this site.

Macro Bull Market was 1982 to 2000 with the 1998 to 2001 period as the rollover and first decline.

Macro Bear Market is expected to be 2000 to 2017 with 2015 to 2017 as the roll up period.

These comments today are just a little luxury on a day when nothing in a macro sense is developing.