Things are OK
As the Fed meets, the markets and the economy appear to be stable.
Real estate and employment remain the broken spokes of the wheel but those are jobs for congress. As such I don’t expect much from the Fed today, maybe buying some mortgage backed bonds but certainly we shouldn’t see anything or even any talk of QE3. The market is finding its way on its own and is probably a little richly priced at the moment.
My posture remains basically short gold, out of stocks, as I await a calmer end of the year scenairo in the markets. Of course if the markets basis the S&P trade down to the 1133 to 1172 area I would be a buyer again as there is always a chance of a pop to the 1330 area by the end of the year.
The one trade we are putting on today is ETF TBT, ie short T-Bonds. Some accounts put that trade on in late September and this bounce back towards those late September highs will be used. We expect interest rates to stabilize and start to move higher as the economy starts to improve. We probably would get a little better chance in the coming weeks, but I like to be early rather than late on what will be a diffucult to short-term time trade.