A Look at Key Measurement Days

Using what we call our composite index of stock indexes, ETF’s and commodities, three days stand out to us as days to measure the current market against.  Those days are September 1, 2010 when intention of QE2 was announced, January 4th 2011 the first level of exuberance in the new year, and February 15th 2011 when the composite index topped out.

Based on the September 1 date, the strongest in order of strength are: cotton, silver, the oil complex, corn, semi-conductor stocks.  The weakest starting out with the weakest are: wheat, dollar, T-bonds, and China’s FXI.

Based on the January 4th date, the strongest in order of strength are: cotton, silver, oil complex, and corn.  The weakest starting out with the weakest are: wheat, dollar, soybeans, China’s FXI. 

Based on the February 15th date, the strongest in order of strength are:  Silver, oil complex, cotton, gold, T-Bonds.  The weakest starting out with the weakest are: wheat, semi-conductor stocks, Ag sector, Financial stocks, Nasdaq.

To us it looks like the strong stocks since the February 15th date are late stage climax stocks and the weakest are primarily what had big runups since QE2 started.

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