Keeping Tabs

I am still putting together our ideas and projections for 2011 which should come out mid-month.

In the meantime lets take a look at the markets from a micro viewpoint. As we mentioned on Tuesday, the markets are working against the QE2 headwinds.  Gold and Oil have been the first two markets to show the effect.  From a charting standpoint on what I would call the proxy for worldwide assets, the S&P 500, Tuesday was an inside day with the highs and lows falling within the prior day.  This pattern tends to be most important when markets are at extremes and indicates indecision.  Since Tuesday the markets have had two days of trying to probe higher but are not making much headway.

So lets walk through the individual markets we follow starting with the S&P 500, moving on to the dollar and bonds, then the 14 different commodities, and finishing up with the 18 individual ETF’s.  The reference to the pattern call is where the market closed yesterday compared to the 1/4/11 highs and lows. 

Obviously the next two days market action will complete the call as the effect of the employment numbers are digested.  Going into these two days we see, of the 14 asset markets, half of the patterns point higher and half point lower.  Of the dollar versus other currencies all patterns point higher, and on bond prices all point to lower prices (higher yields).  The computer signals do however, not confirm all of this.  You will find more comfort in your positions after everything falls in place.

Market   Symbol   Computer  1/4/11   1/4/11   11/6/11  Pattern

                                    Position     High      Low      Close      Call

S&P 500          INX     Long         1274.12  1262.66  1273.85   Mixed

Dollar               DX      Short             79.78      79.12       81.12   Higher

T-Bonds           US       Long            122.03   121.09     120.31    Lower

Gold                 GC       Short         1417.80  1375.00   1371.80   Lower

Silver                SI        Long             30.88     29.32       29.11    Lower

Oil                    CL       Neut             92.07     88.36       88.10    Lower

H-Oil               HO      Long              2.57        2.48         2.51     Mixed

N-Gas             NG       Short            4.71        4.56         4.40     Lower

Copper           HG       Long             4.47        4.35         4.33     Lower

Cotton            CT       Long            145.00   139.80     141.20    Mixed

Corn               C          Long            623.50   603.25    601.50   Lower

Wheat            W         Long           808.75   783.25    788.00    Mixed

Soybeans        S          Long         1390.50  1357.50  1377.75    Mixed

Cattle             LC        Short           106.72    106.00  106.85   Higher

F-Cattle         FC         Long           123.00    122.37   123.07    Higher

Hogs              LH        Long             77.83       77.25    79.80    Higher

ETF’s

S&P 500     SPY         Long            127.37    126.19    127.39   Higher

NASDAQ    QQQQ     Long              55.55     54.93      55.92   Higher

T-Bonds      TLT         Neut              93.76    92.91       91.86   Lower      

Dollar          UUP        Long              22.91    22.76      23.29   Higher

Ag Stocks    MOO      Neut              54.17     53.07      54.67   Higher

Ag Cmdy     DBA        Long             32.08    31.51        31.57    Mixed

Oil Stks       XLE        Neut             69.19     67.52      67.79    Mixed

Gold            GLD        Neut           136.28   134.16     133.83    Lower

Cons Stks   XLY         Long             37.99    37.44      37.72     Mixed

Fin Stks      XLF         Neut             16.38    16.14      16.36      Mixed

Rel Est        IYR          Neut             57.08   55.56     55.75       Mixed

Semi Cd     SMH        Long             32.91   32.47      32.89      Mixed

J-Yen         FXY          Neut           121.01  120.19     118.63      Lower

Euro-D      FXE          Neut            133.51  132.39     129.64     Lower

EU-Stks     IEV           Long             39.99  39.38       38.82      Lower

China-Stk  FXI          Neut             44.32   43.78      43.97       Mixed

1-3 Yr Tr   SHY          Long             84.01   83.92      83.88      Lower

7-10 Yr Tr  IEF          Short            93.88   93.48      93.22      Lower