Contrarian Top Confirmation Awaited

The Contrarian Pattern Recognition call  of yesterday on the blowoff top potential happened and now needs to wait for confirmation.  A classic confirmation would be for markets like the S&P, gold, and commodities to trade in a range that is below yesterday’s daily range this coming Friday.

All this technical talk is within the fundamental macro framework of the Fed and interest rates that we have discussed at length the past couple of weeks.

Our computer model signals are little changed from the last reading we provided on November 3rd.  Keep in mind that these technical signals are a separate entity from our Macro Fundamental/Technical readings on the market.  These models like most longer-term computer models tend to be late on turns and do poorly in choppy markets. 

On the other hand the trending period since September 1st has been a great period for the models. They tend to mimic the performance patterns of the action of the Wall Street crowd.  As such, they like the the Wall Street crowd are sitting on big short-term profits based on this Fed based upmove.

The 18 ETF Technical signals we track are currently:

Note the three changes since the last shown signals are, UUP and GLD turned long and USO turned neutral.   TLT (T-Bonds) remains the only short signal at the moment.

Long      : DBA,MOO,USO,QQQQ,SPY,SMH,XLY,IYR,IEV,IEF,SHY,GLD,UUP

Neutral : FXE,FXY,FXI,XLF,USO

Short     : TLT