Odds and Ends with Macro and Portfolio Position Direction
This pre-holiday, end of quarter week will be need to be watched for breakouts of the current trading range on the S&P, of 1070 to 1105. The strongest direction will probably be towards lower volatility and flat momentum as everyone takes a breather.
The G-20 meeting reinforced the lower the deficit rhetoric but the underlying private debt problems world wide probably will negate any meaningful movement for now. Our market positions are still directed towards a test of the value base at the S&P 890 area by mid-August.
Our Macro Position Views for the Big Eight ETF Areas are at the moment:
(long, short, double short, designations) Aggressive Portfolios use leverage
SPY/SH/SDS (S&P 500) Short (lower)
QQQQ/PSQ/QID (Nasdaq 100) Short (lower)
IWM/RWM/TWM (Russell index) Short (lower)
GLD/DZZ (Gold) Short (topping)
UUP/UDN (dollar) Long (higher)
DBC/DDP/CMD (commodities) Short (lower)
XLE/DUG (oil) Neutral (sideways)
TLT/TBT (T-Bonds) Long (higher)) (lower rates)