2010 Price Projections – Lower
As part of our Outlook for 2010 we will review the 18 month Projections that we presented last March 9th on this site and then show our projections for 2010. This is in the form of three tables. Table I is the 2009 Projections, Table II is the 2009 actual price ranges, and Table III is the 2010 Projections. I am having some trouble getting the tables to load into the blog so they may not show up until tomorrow.
The important thing is direction to us. Last March we projected prices to on average be 12 percent higher for stocks and commodities. In actuality they were 26 percent higher with our biggest misses in stocks and copper. For the coming year we project prices 5 percent lower. If we are wrong it will be because we are too conservative on the downside.
Since last March stimulus around the world was the main factor in markets, especially in China and the US. China became much more aggressive than we anticipated. Now we are seeing China start to deal with the situation and in the US gains by the Republicans will no doubt put pressure to reduce stimulus levels. We will discuss this in much more depth in a special report soon on the role of Deficits in the Crisis that started in 1982 and the role of them in the coming market action.