Markets above Upper Quartile Projected Values for 2009
Based on our 2009 outlook which we published here on March 9th, all the major markets that we follow are in the upper quartile of projected prices for this year. Does that mean we should sell them, probably not too aggressively, but it does mean that scale up selling in the upper 25 percent quartile makes a lot of sense to us. By selling it means in our aggressive portfolios we are doing scale up shorting with an objective to be 100 percent short (face position versus assets allocated to a particular sector) when the upper price levels are reached
Those upper quartile price ranges are: S&P 500 885 to 960; Nasdaq 100 1320 to 1420; Crude Oil 72 to 85; Copper 2.13 to 2.42; Corn 4.60 to 5.10; Wheat 7.05 to 7.80; Soybeans 10.35 to 11.20; and Gold 905 to 1030.
Currently the S&P is 932, Nasdaq 100 is 1450; December Crude Oil is 70.70; December Copper is 2.20; December Corn is 4.64; December Wheat is 6.98; November Soybeans are 10.77; and December Gold is 983.
The EMA ETF Fund Nav was 1143 at the close Friday.
We will publish performance numbers for May 2009, the year 2009 and the last 12 months, later today.
8:38 AM CDT