Technology Stocks Clearly the Leader…Update, Possible Game Changer
Yesterday the Nasdaq 100 broke through its 50 day moving average and came within one point of the 100 day moving average. The Dow, on the other hand, is 11 percent below its 100 day moving average. We continue to believe that the green energy direction will keep emphasis on tech.
From a market standpoint, we will be watching to see how the Nasdaq handles these important market levels; ie will the Nasdaq stop here? ; will the Dow catchup as the financials get legs? There are a lot of questions but the most important thing is that the market on the whole continues to show a bear mentality. We say this based on computer models that we watch to find the sentiment of the market players. These models now show the bottom buying signals that were seen back in November have been replaced with sell signals that are losing money. So while the market is going up it is now being fueled by short-term sellers running on the rallys. That mentality was set up during the market hole between February 16th and March 9th which turned the short-term trader to a bear again. Before this run will be over we will need the short-term traders to get long and push the market to overbought levels.
The EMA ETF NAV was 921 on yesterdays close. Our Conservative Marketocracy Tracked Portfolio is doing the best for us this year so far, being down 1 percent for the year as of yesterdays close. It seems the conservative leverage ratio being held to 0.6 until March 9th and then being pushed up to 1.o was the key.
8:05 AM CDT
Update at 1:47 PM: The aggressive FED action at their meeting today has the potential to start monetizing inflation but the result is still out-there, unclear. Can they force money into the system? Big question. Our long dollar and short GOLD ETF “DZZ” position will not be a good trade if this works for the fed. We bought DZZ on March 12th at 22.18. Today the High and Low has been 24.12 and 21.78 and at the moment 22.20, so we were up 8 percent on the high and right now we are back to where we started. Maybe more importantly, what are the long term effects to the stock market where most of our positions exist. The markets are running and that is good for our NAV but I sense it is not good for a little way down the road. Hold on but be looking for exits soon.