Market has Turned

Basis the S&P, two areas of back-off need to be in your sights, 890 and 870.  At 890 we are moving the Conservative Portfolio up to 50 percent long, and the Aggressive Portfolio up to 110 percent long, . a little leverage. This rally should last 4 to 5 weeks, maybe longer.

Helping this scenario is a lot of skepticism, so far I see thoughts out there this morning of 1) this is a full moon rally, and as a trader I do watch this and look for higher than normal volatility over a two to three day period surrounding the day, sometimes that does correspond to change in direction, sometimes just a interim volatility pause, in this case the other factors point to change in direction, and 2) CNBC’s “Fast Money” Daily Poll says there is a 66 percent chance of up to 500 points down in the Dow today, a good fade.

We are still short T-Bonds and am evaluating taking profits on the long dollar position at some point today.

7:35 AM CST